This presentation provides a review of past thermal coal price trends in Asia and an outlook on coal prices for the period 2015 to 2020.

Specific topics covered:

• Price trends for Australian bituminous coals (1980-2014) and Indonesian Sub-Bit coals (2009-2014)

• Reasons for past price movements and their impacts on regional supply and demand with an outlook to 2020

• China’s shift from being a major steam coal exporter to the region’s largest importer (2002-2011)

• Reasons for the large thermal coal price decline between 2012 and 2014

• Thoughts on coal price data accuracy and our ability to accurately forecast Asian coal exports requirements and prices more than 1 year ahead.

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This presentation provides a survey of the data sources and methods for determining FOB coal prices and then compares the quality and accuracy of the resulting coal price series against those reported by various sources of LNG price data, e.g., Platts Japanese-Korea Marker (JKM) Price for LNG, METI’s Japan Custom Cleared (JCC) LNG Price, and the Henry Hub Derived LNG Price. It concludes with a discussion of the DES price advantage that Asian LNG buyers would have achieved if they had purchased LNG from US Gulf Coast LNG suppliers with prices based on the Henry Hub gas price. It concludes with a discussion of price volatility risks that create price uncertainty for all LNG price series over time.

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This presentation reports on the results of a DCF study conducted for hypothetical coal and gas-fired power plants assumed to be built at a site in Rayong, Thailand. Detailed performance data and EPC and O&M cost data were obtained from an international engineering firm and then analyzed using a DCF financial model. The methodology and data are discussed at length, followed by the presentation of the DCF analysis, which showed for a number of gas-coal price scenarios, including the imposition of a carbon tax, which of the two power plant types offered the lowest life cycle cost.

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